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How to play Jade Magician
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh assumed the top role in May, and the central bank held rates steady for all of Warsh’s first three meetings. The decision to stand pat at the start of Warsh’s tenure came despite increasing calls for a hike as inflation remains solidly above the Fed’s 2% target. Those calls became too loud to ignore, prompting the first rate hike since August 2023.
“The decision we made today was the right decision to deliver on the remit that Congress gave us to ensure stable prices… Some months ago I said we will deliver stable prices, today’s action is consistent with that,” Warsh said at the Fed press conference.
For the gaming industry, the marked economic shift over the course of 2026 and a return to an elevated interest-rate environment after years of post-Covid easing could dissipate some of the optimism that prevailed at the onset of this year.
How to play Jade Magician
One of the main concerns is Bill 560/2025, which is currently making its way through the council. The proposal prohibits advertising by betting companies at events in the city of São Paulo. This applies to events organised by public or private entities, whether for-profit or non-profit.
The bill prohibits signs, banners, or display panels in arenas, gymnasiums, stadiums and other sports event venues. It also bans advertising on public transport, such as the side panel, exterior or the rear window of buses. The bill imposes a fine of BRL50,000 ($10,000) and a ban on hosting events for up to two years.
The proposal does not explicitly prohibit the display of betting brands on team jerseys, but some city councillors want to include this in the bill.
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The web of lawsuits and court rulings involving prediction markets has greatly complicated the issue of jurisdiction. Kalshi has been forced to limit trading in multiple states, most notably Nevada, and the CFTC has gone to unprecedented lengths to protect its licencees. This includes suing nine states directly and issuing emergency orders to reject state mandates.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is currently the lone sitting commissioner for an agency that traditionally features a bipartisan group of five. Selig has repeatedly defended both the legitimacy of prediction markets as financial assets and the role of the CFTC in overseeing them. The CFTC under his direction has embarked on a series of rule proposals regarding prediction markets, although detractors argue that the proposed changes still allow for sports contracts and in some ways could be seen as a tightening of the belt to make a Supreme Court review look more favourable.
“It’s not a question of whether innovations like blockchain, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets will transform our markets. It’s a question of where this innovation will take place and who will write the rules,” Selig said during a meeting of the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee on 20 August, which featured the CEOs of Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, CME Group and more.
