Xmas Drop

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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

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Chumba Casino, VGW’s flagship brand, says in its Sept. 16 updated terms and conditions that the platform is not available in California, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Washington, and West Virginia.

While Alabama ranks 27th among the 50 states in population, the limited availability of gaming makes the state attractive to companies like VGW.

Alabama has only parimutuel betting, small games of chance for charitable purposes, and electronic bingo machines at three tribal casinos in Atmore, Montgomery, and Wetumpka.

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“By bringing together official data, live streaming, league IP, integrity services and the reach of our Legend media network, we are helping Polymarket deliver a differentiated and trusted experience for sports fans across the US.” 

Genius signed deals with both Polymarket and Kalshi in August, to provide real-time event data and league integrity services, as well as streaming services. Fellow data provider Sportradar also announced similar multi-year partnerships with both Kalshi and Polymarket in June. 

Initial reaction from investors was largely unfavourable. Genius shares plunged 13% on 18 Sept., falling 17% for the week. The data provider closed the session at $5.64 per share, well below the $6.19 price when it announced the Legend acquisition in February.