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His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.
The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.
But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.
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There’s also opposition to a casino in Allen County. Last year, a group of anonymous business owners, residents, and faith leaders assembled to launch Save Fort Wayne. The political action group says a casino “creates a net loss” by increasing addiction and crime.
The group’s website features an interactive slot machine where the spin always lands on an alleged negative consequence such as “addiction,” “bankruptcies,” “divorces,” “mental health issues,” “fatal accidents,” “child neglect,” “human trafficking,” and “poverty.”
Voters in DeKalb and Steuben will also weigh in on casino authorization. House Bill 1038, signed by Indiana Gov. Mike Braun (R) in March, authorizes a single casino in one of the three counties.
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As for the regulatory outlooks for the ETFs, the SEC hasn’t publicly commented on the NHL funds’ fates and it’s too early to tell what will come of the MLB filings, but there are hundreds of futures-based ETFs on the market today.
That may be a sign that pro sports futures ETFs could avoid the “novel” label that’s been a hindrance in bringing other ETFs to market.
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