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About Big Bite
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
About Big Bite
Egypt’s gambling rules were written around physical venues. Law 8 of 2022 provides that “gambling games may not be practised in establishments except by non-Egyptians”. No licensing framework exists for online betting.
In October 2024 the then-prosecutor general ordered the freezing of e-wallets and the suspension of mobile lines used by betting agents. Separately, in February this year, officials said regulators were working with the telecoms authority and the media council towards blocking about 80% of betting applications by the end of that month.
Ahmed Badawi, who chairs the House communications committee, said in May that the government would amend the anti-cybercrime law to name online betting explicitly. Life imprisonment was discussed for the gravest offences. No bill number or text has been published.
What is Big Bite?
That growth reflects the expanding number and variety of sports contracts. ITF tennis is particularly dependent on official data because its more than 60,000 annual matches are not generally televised. Unofficially monitoring a tour moving between locations such as Bogotá and Bali would be difficult, Monk noted.
Streaming is also becoming part of the product. Monk said prediction market interfaces had moved beyond their earlier trading-led presentation to incorporate streams, player propositions and combinations resembling sportsbook bet builders.
“It was still very much a trading kind of UX,” he said of Kalshi at the beginning of the year. “The actual product offering has come a long way.”
